The Future of Solar Power: Key technologies and drivers for a solar future

Abstract

This report analyses the future of solar power generation- It looks at the key technologies, and examines the efficiency and economics of the different solar power generation systems. It looks specifically at a range off issues affecting the costs, efficiency and take up of solar photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation as well as a brief consideration of other and emerging solar generation technologies. Drawing on over 30 separate sources, the report analyses the most current thinking on solar power generation. It gives the most comprehensive view on the drivers and resistors of solar power capacity growth and its impact on the power generation landscape.

Executive summary

Introduction
The solar resource
Solar photovoltaic power generation
Solar thermal power generation
Other approaches to solar power generation
The economics of solar power generation
The prospects for solar power

Chapter 1 - An introduction to solar power

Introduction
The report

Chapter 2 - The solar resource

Introduction
Solar potential
Solar resource sites

Chapter 3 - Solar photovoltaic power generation

Introduction
Solar cell basics
Energy levels and absorption
Types of solar cell
Different cell structures
Flat plate and concentrating cells

Solar photovoltaic systems
Building integrated photovoltaics

Energy storage

Photovoltaic environmental considerations

Solar photovoltaic production
Key manufacturers

Solar cell country markets

Utility photovoltaic systems

Costs

Chapter 4 - Solar thermal power generation

Introduction

Solar thermal basics

Parabolic troughs
The SEGS parabolic trough plants
Modern parabolic trough power stations
Parabolic trough with direct steam generation
Hybrid parabolic trough - fossil fuel power plants

Solar towers
Current solar tower developments
Other solar tower projects
Advanced solar tower developments

Solar dishes
Solar dish projects
Solar dish developments

Solar thermal environmental considerations

Solar thermal costs

Chapter 5 - Other approaches to solar power generation

Introduction

Solar ponds
Solar pond projects

Solar chimneys
Photoelectrolysis

Chapter 6 - The economics of solar power generation

Introduction
Solar thermal power plant economics
Solar photovoltaic power plant economics
Comparative costs of utility plants

Chapter 7 - The prospects for solar power

Introduction
Comparative costs of solar generation
Solar thermal markets
Solar photovoltaic markets
Conclusions

List of Figures

Figure 3.1: Semiconductor band gaps at 300oK (27oC)
Figure 3.2: Market share among thin film technologies, 2007
Figure 3.3: Energy payback for solar cells (years)
Figure 3.4: Annual solar cell production (MW) and cumulative global capacity (MW), 1999-2007
Figure 3.5: Solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006
Figure 3.6: Thin film solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006
Figure 3.7: Top ten solar cell manufacturers, 2006
Figure 3.8: Largest solar cell markets by country (Annual installation), 2006
Figure 3.9: Annual US photovoltaic module production costs ($/W), 1970-2006
Figure 4.10: Typical breakdown of investment in parabolic trough power plant (%)
Figure 4.11: Breakdown of costs for Solar Tres solar tower plant (%)
Figure 4.12: Breakdown of costs for a hypothetical 50MW solar dish power plant (%)
Figure 4.13: Land area for solar thermal power plants (Capacity v ha/MW)
Figure 4.14: Capital costs for solar thermal power plants (€ /kW)
Figure 6.15: EU cost estimates for 50MW reference solar thermal power plants (€ /kW), (€ /MWh)
Figure 6.16: Solar thermal installed cost projections ($/kW), 2006-2010
Figure 6.17: Benchmark (2005) and projected solar photovoltaic installed cost ($/kW), 2005-2020
Figure 6.18: Solar plant levelized electricity costs ($/MWh), 2007
Figure 7.19: Instant installed costs for power generation technologies in California ($/kW), 2007
Figure 7.20: Levelized cost of electricity from new generation plants in California ($/MWh)
Figure 7.21: US DoE Solar Program cost targets ($/MWh), 2011 and 2020
Figure 7.22: Projections for peak demand growth in southwestern US states (MW), 2006 to 2015

List of Tables

Table 3.1: Semiconductor band gaps at 300oK (27oC)
Table 3.2: Market share among thin film technologies, 2007
Table 3.3: Energy payback for solar cells (years)
Table 3.4: Annual solar cell production (MW) and cumulative global capacity (MW), 1999-2007
Table 3.5: Solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006
Table 3.6: Thin film solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006
Table 3.7: Top ten solar cell manufacturers, 2006
Table 3.8: Largest solar cell markets by country (Annual installation (MW)), 2006
Table 3.9: Annual US photovoltaic module production costs ($/W), 1970-2006
Table 4.10: Typical breakdown of investment in parabolic trough power plant (%)
Table 4.11: Breakdown of costs for Solar Tres solar tower plant (%)
Table 4.12: Breakdown of costs for a hypothetical 50MW solar dish power plant (%)
Table 4.13: Land area for solar thermal power plants (Capacity v ha/MW)
Table 4.14: Capital costs for solar thermal power plants (€ /kW)
Table 6.15: EU cost estimates for 50MW reference solar thermal power plants (€ /kW), (€ /MWh)
Table 6.16: Solar thermal installed cost projections ($/kW), 2006-2010
Table 6.17: Benchmark (2005) and projected solar photovoltaic installed cost ($/kW), 2005-2020
Table 6.18: Benchmark (2005) and projected solar photovoltaic electricity costs ($/MWh), 2005-2020
Table 6.19: Solar plant installation costs ($/kW), 2007
Table 6.20: Solar plant operation and maintenance costs ($/kW), 2007
Table 6.21: Solar plant levelized electricity costs ($/MWh), 2007
Table 7.22: Instant installed costs for power generation technologies in California ($/kW), 2007
Table 7.23: Levelized cost of electricity from new generation plants in California ($/MWh)
Table 7.24: US DoE Solar Program cost targets ($/MWh), 2011 and 2020
Table 7.25: Projections for peak demand growth in southwestern US states (MW), 2006 to 2015