Thin Film Photovoltaics Markets: 2008 and Beyond

Abstract

Today, thin-film PV is one of the most vibrant areas of PV technology and represents a growing share of solar panel production. Initially, the market was driven by the shortage of crystalline silicon, but now that this shortage has eased, thin-film PV has its low-cost, low-weight and flexibility to recommend it. And, the thin-film PV market is moving well beyond amorphous silicon. In particular, CIGS seems set to offer all the virtues of thin-film PV with energy conversion efficiencies that aren' t that much lower than conventional PV, while CdTe solar panels have been flourishing.

This new report NanoMarkets offers a fresh assessment of where the thin-film PV market is headed over the next eight years as well as analysis of the strategies of leading firms active in this space. The materials platforms covered in this report include amorphous silicon, CIGS, CdTe, and GaAs as well as interesting materials and architectures for thin-film PV that are about to emerge from the laboratory. Each of these technologies is reviewed in terms of their key performance characteristics (e.g., conversion efficiencies, costs per watt, etc.) and how these might improve in the future. We also look at the evolution of roll-to-roll, printing and other manufacturing processes that will significantly impact the cost of thin-film PV in the future.

In this report we examine which market segments are likely to generate significant revenues for thin-film PV. Market segments examined in detail include building integrated systems, mobile and wearable computing, central power generation, disposable electronics, portable and emergency power (including battery chargers), and military and aerospace applications. Finally, the report contains detailed eight-year forecasts of PV shipments broken out by technology type and application and discusses how far this new type of photovoltaics can eat into traditional photovoltaics markets.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• E.1 Thin Film Photovoltaics: The Opportunities
  • E.1.1 Applications and Markets
  • E.1.2 TFPV and Global Energy Markets
• E.2 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: The Risks
  • E.2.1 Will Silicon Abundance Hurt the TFPV Business?
  • E.2.2 How Long Will the PV Boom Last?
  • E.2.3 Political Risks
  • E.2.4 Other Concerns
• E.3 Technologies and Materials to Watch
  • E.3.1 Amorphous Silicon
  • E.3.2 CIGS
  • E.3.3 CdTe
  • E.3.4 GaAs
• E.4 Firms to Watch
• E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Market Projections
  • E.5.1 What Has Changed Since Last Year
  • E.5.2 Summary of Forecasts

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to Report
  • 1.1.1 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: Lighter and Less Expensive
  • 1.1.2 Where Thin-Film Photovoltaics Fits in the Energy Market
  • 1.1.3 TFPV and Socioeconomic Factors
  • 1.1.4 Materials and Production Issues
  • 1.1.5 Productization
• 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
• 1.3 Methodology of this Report
• 1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Thin-Film Technology, Materials and Production Strategies

• 2.1 Evolution and Current State of Photovoltaics Markets
• 2.2 Thin-Film Silicon
  • 2.2.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for Thin-film Silicon PV
  • 2.2.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
  • 2.2.3 Silicon Inks and Nanocrystalline Silicon
  • 2.2.4 Other Forms of Silicon TFPV
  • 2.2.5 Manufacturers of Amorphous Silicon PV
• 2.3 CIS/CIGS
  • 2.3.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CIS/CIGS
  • 2.3.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
  • 2.3.3 Manufacturers of CIGS PV
• 2.4 CdTe
  • 2.4.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CdTe
  • 2.4.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
  • 2.4.3 Manufacturers of CdTe PV
• 2.5 GaAs and Other Compound Semiconductors
  • 2.5.1 Manufacturers of GaAs PV Panels

Chapter Three: Markets for Thin-Film Photovoltaics

• 3.1 Introduction: Drivers for the Thin-Film PV Market
  • 3.1.1 The Basic Value Proposition of TFPV
  • 3.1.2 TFPV, Geography and Public Policy
  • 3.1.3 Ability to Create New Products
• 3.2 Large Projects and Central Generation
• 3.3 Building Integrated Systems
  • 3.3.1 Residential Systems
  • 3.3.2 Commercial and Industrial Buildings
  • 3.3.3 Roofing Systems
  • 3.3.4 Façade Systems
  • 3.3.5 TFPV for BIPV
  • 3.3.6 TFPV and Smart Windows
• 3.4 Consumer Electronics
  • 3.4.1 PV, TF and Mobile Electronics
• 3.5 Military and Emergency Applications
• 3.6 Other Applications

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV

• 4.1 Forecasting Methodology
  • 4.1.1 Data Sources
  • 4.1.2 Forecasting in a Hyper-Growth Market and Alternative Scenarios
  • 4.1.3 Scope of Forecast
  • 4.1.4 Other Factors Taken into Consideration in the Forecast
  • 4.1.5 How Much Confidence Should You Have in These Forecasts?
  • 4.1.6 Comparison with Previous NanoMarkets Forecasts
• 4.2 Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV Markets by Applications
  • 4.2.1 Forecast of Thin-Film Share of Worldwide PV Market
• 4.3 Forecasts of Application Revenue Broken Out by Material
  • 4.3.1 a-Si
  • 4.3.2 CIS/CIGS
  • 4.3.3 CdTe
  • 4.3.4 GaAs
  • 4.3.5 Other Materials
• 4.4 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Materials
• 4.5 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Applications
• 4.6 Forecast of Printed PV Markets by Production Technology
• Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
• About the Author

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin-Film Approaches
• Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin-Film Approaches
• Exhibit E-2: Opportunities for TFPV
• Exhibit E-3: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Material ($ Million)
• Exhibit E-4: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 2-1: List of Materials Used for PV
• Exhibit 2-2: Selected Firms Active in the a-Si PV Market
• Exhibit 2-3: Manufacturing Approaches Adopted by CIGS Solar Panel Firms
• Exhibit 2-4: Firms Active in the CIS/CIGS PV Market
• Exhibit 3-1: Top States Installed Grid-Connected PV
• Exhibit 3-2: Solar America Cities - 2008
• Exhibit 3-3: Selected Solar Panel Products
• Exhibit 3-4: Selected Building-Integrated Solar Products
• Exhibit 3-5: PV Technology and Applications Matrix for BIPV Products
• Exhibit 3-6: Power Consumption and Area of Typical Electronic Devices (1)
• Exhibit 3-7: Selected Portable Electronics Products (Consumer and Military)
• Exhibit 4-1: Alternative Scenarios for the Evolution of Thin-Film Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of TFPV Market Penetration
• Exhibit 4-3: Worldwide production of a-Si Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-4: Breakout of a-Si Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 4-5: Worldwide production of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-6: Breakout of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 4-7: Short-Term Expansion of CdTe TFPV Capacity
• Exhibit 4-8: Worldwide Production of CdTe Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-9: Breakout of CdTe Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-10: Worldwide Production of GaAs Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-11: Breakout of GaAs Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-12: Worldwide Production of "Other" Thin-Film Photovoltaics (Not OPV)
• Exhibit 4-13: Breakout of Other Thin Film Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-14: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Material ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-15: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-16: Printed PV by Material ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 4-17: Printed PV by Application ($ Millions)