Global Concentrated Solar Power Markets and Strategies, 2007-2020

Abstract

The recent announcements of two CSP projects coming online in Spain and the United States indicate that the tide is turning in favor of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). Over 5,800 MW of Solar CSP projects are in planning stages worldwide, and the lion' s share is expected to come online by 2012.

Global Concentrated Solar Power Markets and Strategies 2007-2020 provides a comprehensive analysis of the global CSP markets, the strategies employed by the growing list of developers, and the barriers facing the next generation technology.

• Commercial projects coming online in 2007 aim to prove CSP technology viability: Parabolic trough and central receiver projects installed in 2007 represent the beginning of the 5,800 MW pipeline CSP projects planned to come on line by 2012. These two projects represent the rebirth of the industry since the original SEGs plants were constructed 20 years ago.
• Regulatory hurdles in Spain and the United States present the greatest short term challenge: Spain' s €0.26 feed in tariff is currently limited to 500 MW, and the US Investment Tax Credit is up for renewal in 2008. These support mechanisms are fundamental to the industry' s growth and are essential for the industry to scale.
• CSP developers are forming differing strategies to facilitate their growth. Developers are split among those employing develop and sell models led by Solar Millennium and those seeking vertical integration from technology to ownership such as Solel and Abengoa. At the same time, CSP ownership is entering into the portfolios of major renewable IPPs and utilities including Iberdrola, FPL, Acciona and Neo Energia.

Table of Contents

Section 1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 2006-2007 Review
• 1.2 Global CSP Energy Markets, 2007-2020
• 1.3 Competitive Analysis: CSP Project Developers and IPPs
• 1.4 Competitive Analysis: Technology and Equipment Suppliers
• 1.5 2008: A Pivotal Year

Section 2. Global Solar CSP Market Drivers

• 2.1 Overview of Global Solar Resources
  • 2.1.1 North America
  • 2.1.2 Europe
  • 2.1.3 Rest of World
• 2.2 Climate Issues
  • 2.2.1 CSP Part of EU Strategy to Achieve Kyoto Protocol Objectives
    • Kyoto Protocol and Emission Controls
    • The EU commits to longer term RES targets in Berlin summit
    • CSP role mainly seen in Southern Europe
  • 2.2.2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policy Still Evolving in the US
    • National developments in US Greenhouse Gas Policy
    • State and regional activity to address climate change
• 2.3 Renewable Energy Policies in Support of CSP
  • 2.3.1 Solar CSP Incentive Mechanisms in the United States
    • Federal Investment Tax Credit
    • State Renewable Portfolio Standard Programs
  • 2.3.2 Europe Renewable Policy Incentives
    • Spanish feed-in tariff pushes solar CSP market forward
    • The European Commission and secondary market solar CSP incentives
  • 2.3.3 Solar CSP initiatives beyond the Primary Markets

Section 3. Global Solar CSP Technology Costs & Trends

• 3.1 Product Technology and Competitiveness
  • 3.1.1 Parabolic Trough Technology
    • Receiver tubes are key component in parabolic trough systems
    • Collector manufacturers look to reduce materials
    • Power block systems are a niche to traditional generation
    • Parabolic trough technology leads sector but searches for improvements
  • 3.1.2 Central Receiver Technology
    • Central receiver systems have a long history
    • A new wave of central receiver developers breaking new ground
    • Developers looking to lower heliostat costs
    • Central receivers limited so far to direct steam
  • 3.1.3 Dish Engine Technology
  • 3.1.4 Linear Fresnel Technology
    • Linear Fresnel must first prove itself at demonstration
  • 3.1.5 Solar Chimney Technology
• 3.2 Energy Storage and Integrated Solar Combine Cycle
  • 3.2.1 Thermal Storage
  • 3.2.2 Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
• 3.3 Product Costs and Trends
  • Potential Scale Economies
  • Transmission may become a bottleneck
  • Land use per megawatt raises doubts about some CSP technologies
  • Water demand, availability, and accessibility proves critical
  • Thermal storage drives up front capital costs
• 3.4 Solar CSP Power Curve
  • 3.4.1 Peak Power Supply
• 3.5 Technology comparison

Section 4. Global CSP Power Markets 2007-2020

• 4.1 CSP Project Review by Technology
  • Parabolic trough systems account for lion' s share of project development
  • Central Receiver Tower, Dish Engine, and Linear Fresnel projects grab headlines but remain unproven
  • Country specific regulations driving plant size
• 4.2 Project Review by Region
  • 4.2.1 US Project Review 2007-2010
    • California utilities look to diversify portfolios
    • US land availability increases through Bureau of Land Management
    • California Transmission Expansions
    • US Market Awaits ITC Clarity
  • 4.2.2 Spain Project Review, 2007-2010
    • Spanish market trudges to 500 MW by 2010
    • Grid system set to meet 2010 target
  • 4.2.3 Southern Europe CSP Project Review
    • Southern Europe timidly watches Iberian neighbor
  • 4.2.4 Developing Country CSP Project Review
    • ISCC projects lead development in North Africa and Middle East China, India on Solar CSP radar in Asia
• 4.3 Global CSP Market Forecast, 2007-2020
  • 4.3.1 Regional Forecast Scenarios
    • Spain' s stable and predictable market underpins global solar CSP growth
    • The US Market slowed by regulatory constraints but expected to emerge by 2010
    • Southern European countries expected to follow Spanish lead
    • Opportunities abound in the rest of the world over the long term
• 4.4 Global CSP Technology Forecast, 2007-2012
  • Parabolic trough technology bolsters market in short term
• 4.5 Primary Component Forecast, 2007-2012

Section 5. Competitive Analysis: CSP Development Strategies

• 5.1 Global Value Chain Evolution
  • 5.1.1 Industry Movement Along the Value Chain
  • 5.1.2 Technology Approaches Create Diverse Competitive Environment
    • Parabolic trough technology at the leading edge of CSP wave
  • 5.1.3 CSP Developers Compete to Build Project Pipelines
    • Technology promoters lead pipeline development in US
    • In Spain, technology promoters seek partners to compete with Iberdrola and IPPs
    • Spanish market bolstered by EPC providers
• 5.2 Competitive Analysis
  • 5.2.1 Technology Promoters on Development Frontline
    • LUZ International spawns a new generation of developers
    • Solel leads renaissance of parabolic CSP project development
    • Central receiver players in search of greater capacity
    • Abengoa Solar develops deep pipeline across all technologies
    • Dish Engine hobbled by existing pipeline
    • Linear Fresnel targets lower capital costs
  • 5.2.2 Utility and IPP Owners
    • Largest wind plant owners look to solar CSP for next stage of growth
    • Acciona buys solar CSP experience
    • Iberdrola is the elephant in the room
    • FPL stirs with recent project activity
  • 5.2.3 Pure Play Developers
    • Smaller wind developers also seeking CSP opportunities
    • Pure play solar CSP start-ups proliferate
    • Wind and renewable developers prepare for sell off
• 5.3 Utility and Large IPP Strategy Profiles
  • 5.3.1 Acciona Energía (Acciona Solar Power)
  • 5.3.2 EDP
  • 5.3.3 ENEL SpA.
  • 5.3.4 FPL Energy
  • 5.3.5 Iberdrola
• 5.4 Strategy Profiles of CSP Technology Promoters
  • 5.4.1 Abengoa Solar
  • 5.4.2 Ausra, Inc.
  • 5.4.3 BrightSource Energy, Inc.
  • 5.4.4 Ener-T Global
  • 5.4.5 Novatec Biosol
  • 5.4.6 SENER
  • 5.4.7 Solar Millennium
  • 5.4.8 Solar Power Group
  • 5.4.9 Stirling Energy Systems
• 5.5 CSP Developer Strategy Profiles
  • 5.5.1 Bethel Energy, LLC
  • 5.5.2 Epuron (Conergy AG)
  • 5.5.3 EECH Group AG (P&T Technology)
  • 5.5.4 SAMCA
  • 5.5.5 Skyfuel
  • 5.5.6 Albiasa Solar

Section 6. Competitive Analysis: CSP Power Plant Supply

• 6.1 CSP Technology Competition
  • 6.1.1 Parabolic technology promoters seek to leverage experience curve
    • Parabolic trough suppliers seek economies of scale, operating experience
    • New technology approaches on horizon
    • Linear Fresnel shoots to undercut parabolic costs
  • 6.1.2 Technology promoters Vie for gamechanging solutions
    • Abengoa leads with commercialization of tower technologies
    • Other tower technologies on way to proving grounds in US, Spain
    • Stirling' s Dish Engines Face Steep Climb
    • Is Ausra' s Technology for Real?
  • 6.1.3 ISCC and other hybrid applications gain traction
  • 6.1.4 Storage solutions
• 6.2 CSP Supply Chain Evolution
  • Collaboration marks early market stages but more competition lies ahead
  • 6.2.1 Supply chain strategies of CSP system providers
    • Solel seeks to extend activities along supply chain
    • Acciona Solar and Solar Millennium use outsourced component strategy
    • Abengoa pursues vertical integration strategy to build cost advantage in both parabolic and tower systems
    • Still in testing phase, solar tower supply chain still evolving
  • 6.2.2 CSP Component Manufacturers Strategies
    • Schott challenging Solel in production of parabolic receiver tubes
    • Flabeg Loses Market Share to New Suppliers
  • 6.2.3 Solar CSP Generation and Balance of Plant Suppliers
  • 6.2.4 EPCs Providers
    • EPC providers limited to contractor role in the US
• 6.3 Strategy Profiles: Multi-Technology Players
  • 6.3.1 Abengoa Solar
• 6.4 Strategy Profiles: Parabolic Trough System and Component Manufacturers
  • 6.4.1 Flabeg
  • 6.4.2 Schott Solar
  • 6.4.3 Solel Solar Systems
  • 6.4.4 Flagsol (Solar Millenium)
  • 6.4.5 Acciona Solar Power (formerly Solargenix)
• 6.5 Strategy Profiles: Central Receiver System and Component Suppliers
  • 6.5.1 LUZ II Ltd. (BrightSource Energy Inc.)
  • 6.5.2 SENER
  • 6.5.3 Rocketdyne (Pratt & Whitney)
• 6.6 Strategy Profiles: Dish Engine Component Suppliers
  • 6.6.1 SES (Stirling Energy Systems)
• 6.7 Strategy Profiles: Power Block and BOP Suppliers
  • 6.7.1 ABB
  • 6.7.2 Alstom
  • 6.7.3 Bertrams Heatec
  • 6.7.4 Friatec
  • 6.7.5 General Electric
  • 6.7.6 MAN Turbo
  • 6.7.7 ORMAT
  • 6.7.8 Siemens Power Generation
  • 6.7.9 Skoda
  • 6.7.10 Wartsila
• 6.8 Strategy Profiles: EPC Providers and CSP Consultants
  • 6.8.1 ACS Cobra
  • 6.8.2 Fichtner AG
  • 6.8.3 Lauren Engineering
  • 6.8.4 MAN Ferrostaal
  • 6.8.5 Sacyr Vallehermoso
  • 6.8.6 URS Corporation

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Section 1. Executive Summary

Section 2. Global Solar CSP Market Drivers

• 2-1: Global Solar Resources
• 2-2: US Available Primary Solar Market Resources
• 2-3: European Solar Resources
• 2-4: Africa, Middle East Solar Resources
• 2-5: Asia Solar Resources
• 2-6: Kyoto Protocol Evolution
• 2-7: Actual Emissions in 2002 Relative to Kyoto Targets
• 2-8: Change in US Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 1990-2004
• 2-9: Summary of US State and Regional Greenhouse Gas Abatement Targets
• 2-10: Renewable Power Market Evaluation Components
• 2-11: Three Primary Renewable Energy Regulatory Mechanisms
• 2-12: Renewable Energy Regulatory Mechanisms by Country
• 2-13: Federal ITC Program Details
• 2-14: Overview - US State RPS Programs
• 2-15: US Renewable Energy Pipelines - RPS States vs. Others, 2007-2011 (TW)
• 2-16: RPS Demand by State, 2005-2015 (MWh est.)
• 2-17: US State RPS Program Summary Details
• 2-18: Spain Solar CSP Program Summary Details
• 2-19: Secondary Solar CSP Markets

Section 3. Global Solar CSP Technology Costs & Trends

• 3-1: Solar CSP Industry Evolution
• 3-2: Solar CSP Installed, Project Pipeline by 2012
• 3-3: Installed Parabolic Trough Systems
• 3-4: Parabolic Trough Technology Details
• 3-5: Parabolic System Design
• 3-6: Current and Planned Parabolic Trough Component Suppliers
• 3-7: Current Parabolic Trough Component Suppliers
• 3-8: Central Receiver Plant Diagram
• 3-9: Central Receiver System Developers
• 3-10: Central Receiver Technology Details
• 3-12: Dish Engine Technology Details
• 3-13: Dish Engine Technology Next Generation
• 3-14: Linear Fresnel Technology Details
• 3-15: Linear Fresnel Next Generation
• 3-16: Solar Chimney Technology Details
• 3-17: CSP Projects with Thermal Storage
• 3-18: ISCC Plant Design
• 3-19: ISCC Project Pipeline
• 3-20: Solar CSP Cost Curves, Parabolic Trough without Storage
• 3-21: CSP Cost Comparison to Other Renewables
• 3-22: CSP Technology Footprints
• 3-23: Solar CSP Capital Cost Comparison of Existing and Planned Facilities
• 3-24: Peak Power Costs, California, SP15
• 3-25: Hourly Peak Load With and Without Storage
• 3-26: Technology Comparison

Section 4. Global CSP Power Markets 2007-2020

• 4-1: Installed and Planned Solar CSP Technologies
• 4-2: CSP Project Pipeline by Technology
• 4-3: CSP Project Plant Size by Year and Technology
• 4-4: Solar CSP Market Share by Region
• 4-5: Projects Planned for Installation 2007-2008
• 4-6: Western US Utilities Signing PPAs
• 4-7: BLM Applications Through November 2007
• 4-8: Current BLM Applications and Transmission Corridors
• 4-9: Southern California Transmission Projects
• 4-10: Spanish Pipeline Breakdown by State
• 4-11: Announced Projects by Province
• 4-12: Spanish Electricity System
• 4-13: Announced Pipelines Outside of Spain and the US
• 4-14: European-Middle East-North African Grid Connections
• 4-14: Global MW Added Growth Scenario Comparison, 2007-2020
• 4-15: Global MW Installed Growth Scenario Comparison, 2007-2020
• 4-16: Global High-Growth Scenario Forecast, 2007-2020 (MW)
• 4-17: Solar CSP Technology Forecast 2007-2012
• 4-18: Parabolic Trough Component Annual Additions, 2007-2012
• 4-19: Component Forecast Assumption Data
• 4-20: Central Receiver Heliostat Forecasts, 2007-2012

Section 5. Competitive Analysis: CSP Development Strategies

• 5-1: CSP Development Continuum
• 5-2: Solar CSP Project Value Chain
• 5-3: Leading Developers' Global Focus
• 5-4: Solar CSP Development Curve
• 5-5: US vs. Spanish Project Pipeline by 2012
• 5-6: CSP Plant Ownership 2007-2008 by Developer (net MW owned)
• 5-8: Global CSP Pipelines by Developer, November 2007
• 5-9: BLM Application pipeline
• 5-10: Solar CSP Deal Flow
• 5-11: LUZ International Spin-offs and Development Pipelines
• 5-12: Parabolic Technology Market Share by Developer, 2007-2012
• 5-13: Parabolic Trough Project Comparison
• 5-14: Technology Promoters' Global Diversification
• 5-15: Central Receiver Technology Differentiators
• 5-16: Stirling Energy Systems PPA Details
• 5-17: Wind IPPs and Utilities Targeting Solar CSP (End of Year 2006)
• 5-18: Acciona Solar and Solargenix Acquisition Details
• 5-19: Iberdola Renewable Energy Ranking 2006
• 5-20: Acciona Project Pipeline
• 5-21: EDP Project Pipeline
• 5-22: Endesa Project Pipeline
• 5-23: ENEL, SpA Pipeline
• 5-24: FPL Energy Project Pipeline
• 5-25: Iberdrola Project Pipeline
• 5-26: Abengoa Solar Project Pipeline
• 5-27: Ausra Project Pipeline
• 5-28: BrightSource Energy Project Pipeline
• 5-29: Ener-T Global Project Pipeline
• 5-30: SENER Project Pipeline
• 5-31: Solar Millennium Project Pipeline
• 5-32: Solar Power Group Project Pipeline
• 5-33: Stirling Energy Systems Project Pipeline
• 5-34: Bethel Energy Project Pipeline
• 5-35: Epuron Project Pipeline
• 5-36: EECH, AG Project Pipeline
• 5-37: SAMCA Project Pipeline
• 5-38: SkyFuel Project Pipeline

Section 6. Competitive Analysis: CSP Power Plant Supply

• 6-1: Installed and Planned Solar CSP Technologies
• 6-2: Installed and Planned Solar CSP Technologies
• 6-3: Parabolic Trough Collector Overview
• 6-4: Parabolic Trough Learning Curve Continuum
• 6-5: Parabolic Trough Technology Shifts
• 6-6: CSP Technology Comparison
• 6-7: Ausra' s Projected Capital Costs Versus Parabolic Trough in 2010
• 6-8: SES Manufacturing Demand
• 6-9: Announced Parabolic Trough Supply Chain Agreements
• 6-10: Announced Parabolic Trough Supply Chain Agreements
• 6-11: Specialized Component Manufacturing Locations
• 6-12: Schott and Solel Receiver Tube Manufacturing
• 6-13: Solel Receiver Tube Deals
• 6-14: EPC-Technology Promoter Partnerships