2004 Energy Industry Review

INTRODUCTION

Energy supplies, energy prices and energy politics are in the news again. In an era of cheap energy and steady supplies it was easy to forget the oil shocks of the 1970s. Few people remember the lines at gas stations, limits of 10 gallons and alternate-day purchasing. But those who forgot have recently gotten a rude awakening again. The U.S. is more dependent on imported oil than ever before; OPEC is not quite as powerful a force as it used to be. But how dependable are other sources these days for whatever reason.

All it takes is one million barrel a day production cutback or Mid-east turmoil, not to mention instability in Venezuela, pipeline problems in Russia and other disturbances down the distribution channels, for example, to send crude oil, gasoline, and even natural gas prices soaring. The yearly burden on the U.S. economy is in the tens of billions of dollars. The deregulation of the electric utilities has not helped. Instead of the promise of lower prices, the newly consolidated utilities pass their costs on to their customers. California of course is a shining example.

Based on BCC Inc.s quarterly publication, energy, this anthology is a collection of exclusive articles on energy issues written by industry experts. Selection of these incisive analyses is guided by an editorial board comprised of some of eminent names in energy from industry, government, and academe. In addition, it contains important news in oil, gas and nuclear energy; energy policy, technology, company developments and more. Independent reviewers explore the latest books and other energy-related publications. This information-package provides important insights into the economics, politics and technology of energy.

The review covers

• Energy Economics: Supply and demand, impact of regulations.
• Exploration: Deep drilling, enhanced recovery, new fields.
• Renewable Energy: Projects; plans for wind, solar, geothermal; waste to energy; biofuels.
• Utilities: Deregulation, conservation programs, economics, rate base issues, regulations.
• Conservation: Building design, alternative fuel vehicles, greenhouse impact.
• Demand Side: What are consumer and industrial users doing; what are the issues?
• Technology: Clean coal, advanced refining, cogeneration, fuel cells, low head hydro, wind.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

COMMENTARY

• WHAT CAUSED THE BLACKOUT?
  • A TASK FORCE LEANED MORE TOWARD GOVERNMENT CONTROL THAN TECHNICAL COMPETENCE
  • MARKET MADNESS
  • ORGANIZATIONS AND POLICIES
• DONT FORGET BIOMASS
  • DONT FORGET BIOMASS (CONTINUED)
• WHATS REALLY NEEDED IS RELIABLE POWER
• STOCKS AND ENERGY
• FOREIGN POLICY OF OIL
• INVESTMENTS FOR PETROLEUM? DONT COUNT ON IT.
  • INVESTMENTS FOR PETROLEUM? DONT COUNT ON IT (CONTINUED)
• SCIENCE AND POLICY
  • SCIENCE AND POLICY (CONTINUED)

ALTERNATIVES

• GLOBAL HYDROGEN GENERATION, STORAGE AND DELIVERY DEVICE MARKET TO NEARLY DOUBLE TO $1.5 BILLION BY 2008
• Table 1 GLOBAL HYDROGEN GENERATION, STORAGE AND DELIVERY DEVICE VALUE BY ENERGY APPLICATION, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS INCLUDING R&D)
  • WASTE OR RESOURCE
    • WHATS THE POINT OF EXTRACTING COALBED METHANE IN WYOMING?
    • COST-BENEFIT
• Table 2 COST VS. BENEFITS
  • PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE
  • UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
  • ATTENTION TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS, BENEFITS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
  • FULL DISCLOSURE
  • CBM EXTRACTION PROPOSAL
  • SUBSIDIES, NO ACCOUNTABILITY
  • DAMAGE AGREEMENTS
  • WHATS NEXT FOR SOLAR?
    • CAN THIS TECHNOLOGY MOVE OUT OF ITS NICHE AND BECOME A MAINSTREAM ENERGY SOURCE.
    • SHINING ON JAPAN
      • New Sunshine
    • 70,000 Solar Roof Program
    • SUNNY GERMANY
      • Roof Programs
    • Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG)
    • CALIFORNIA BUYS DOWN
    • RENEWABLES BUY-DOWN PROGRAM
• Table 3 CUMULATIVE INSTALLED PV POWER IN JAPAN, GERMANY, AND THE U.S. (MW, 1998-2001)
  • SELF GENERATION PROGRAM
  • SWITCHING TO H₂
    • REPLACE CURRENT FUELS WITH HYDROGEN. MAYBE. BUT INVESTMENTS WOULD BE VAST
    • IMPOSSIBLE DREAM?
    • STORAGE OPTIONS
    • FUTURE CARS
    • CLIMATE BENEFITS
    • FINDING COMMON GROUND
    • CONCLUSION
  • TRADING IN ETHANOL
    • THE U.S. MARKET IS BOOMING BUT INVESTING IS STILL RISKY
    • GROWING INDUSTRY
    • INDUSTRY DYNAMICS
    • GOVERNMENT POLICY
    • MARGIN VOLATILITY
• Table 4 CORRELATION OF COMMODITY PRICES 1994-2004 ETHANOL GASOLINE CORN*
  • YIELD MATTERS
  • CONSTRUCTION NOT A RISK
  • CONCLUSION
  • IN THE WIND
    • WHATS THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WIND POWER INVESTMENT?
    • MANUFACTURINGS COMPONENT
    • TRACKING BENEFITS
    • STATES THAT BENEFIT
    • IDENTIFYING MANUFACTURERS
    • PLACING INCENTIVES
  • SOLAR POWER TURNS 50
  • GEARING UP ALTAMONT-AND PROTECTING BIRDS
    • BIGGER TURBINES, LOWER MORTALITY
    • ENERGY BENEFITS

BATTERY AND FUEL CELLS

• GLOBAL MARKET FOR PREMIUM PORTABLE POWER SOURCES TO REACH $6.3 BILLION BY 2009
• Table 5 GLOBAL VALUE OF PREMIUM PORTABLE POWER SOURCES BY TYPE, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)
• Figure 1 GLOBAL VALUE OF PREMIUM PORTABLE POWER SOURCES BY TYPE, 2004 AND 2009 (%)
  • LITHIUM BATTERY SALES TO REACH $2.7 BILLION BY 2009
• Table 6 U.S. LITHIUM BATTERY SALES, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)
• Figure 2 U.S. LITHIUM BATTERY SALES, 2002-2009 ($ MILLIONS)
  • U.S. LARGE AND ADVANCED BATTERIES TO REACH $4.5 BILLION IN 2008
• Table 7 VALUE OF U.S. ADVANCED BATTERY MARKET BY BATTERY TYPE, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS)
  • EVOLUTION OF FUEL CELLS AND BATTERIES FOR THE MILITARY TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING FIVE YEARS
    • EVOLUTION OF FUEL CELLS AND BATTERIES (CONTINUED)�E
• Table 8 ADVANCED POWER SOURCES FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS BY TYPE, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS)
• Figure 3 ADVANCED POWER SOURCES FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS BY TYPE, 1980-2008 ($ MILLIONS)
  • U.S. WHOLESALE MARKET FOR BATTERY CONTROL TECHNOLOGY TO REACH $4.2 BILLION BY 2009
• Table 9 HISTORIC AND PREDICTED WHOLESALE BATTERY CONTROL TECHNOLOGY SALES, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)
• Figure 4 HISTORIC AND PREDICTED WHOLESALE BATTERY CONTROL TECHNOLOGY SALES, 2001-2009 ($ MILLIONS)

CONTRARIANS VIEW ON ENERGY

• RETURN TO SANITY?
  • A LOOK AT WHERE HIGH TECHNOLOGY PANACEAS HAVENT FLOWN
  • AIRSHIPS
  • PROJECT MEGASOFC
  • AUTOMOTIVE FUEL
  • ZERO-EMISSION CARS
  • CONCLUSION
• ENERGY FUNNIES
  • WHEN THEY THROW OUT MONEY BY THE BUCKET-WHAT COMES BACK?
  • VISION 21?
• CO₂ EMISSION CONTROL - FOR WHAT?
  • DONT HOLD YOUR BREATH
  • CONTROLLING CO2
  • ASIAN BROWN CLOUD
  • GAS RESEARCH INSTITUTEÆ STATIC PROGRESS
• VOICE OF AUTHORITY
  • JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS ON GLOBAL WARMING
  • SUPER HAPPENING
  • EAGER ENVIRONMENTALISTS
  • TRY COGENERATION
• ENERGY DREAMS
  • OUR GERMAN CURMEDGEON SORTS THROUGH THE FANTASIA OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
  • RED CARD FOR LIARS
  • BIO-DIESEL SAGA
  • PREACHING BEYOND THE CONVERTED
  • CONCLUSION
    • Conclusion (continued)

DISTRIBUTION

• PIPELINE SAFETY
  • A REPORT LOOKS AT THE NATIONS GAS AND OIL DISTRIBUTION GRID
  • COEXISTING WITH PIPELINES
  • THE DATA
  • LAND USE
  • HOW MUCH RISK?
  • THE FINDINGS
  • CONCLUSIONS
    • Conclusions (Continued)
  • RECOMMENDATIONS
    • Recommendations (Continued)

ECONOMICS

• TRADING IN ETHANOL
  • ITS BEEN A BEVERAGE, A SOLVENT AND FUEL FOR MILLENIA. WHAT NOW?
• Table 10 ETHANOL FUTURES CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS CALLS FOR FOB VESSEL DELIVERY OF BULK LIQUID ETHANOL FROM ANY OF NINE COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
  • A FUTURES MARKET
    • The Exchange
    • Pricing
  • THE TRANSACTION
  • CLEARING CORPORATION
  • REGULATION
  • ETHANOL CONTRACTS
    • Ethanol Contracts (Continued)
• Table 11 WORLD FUEL ETHANOL TRADE, 2003-2010 (BILLON GALLONS)
  • STRATEGY IN THE OIL PATCH
    • SPENDING GROWTH WILL REMAIN IN SINGLE DIGITS IN 2004
    • WHERES THE GROWTH?
    • A LONG UPCYCLE
      • A Long Upcycle (Continued)

ELECTRICITY

• WORLDWIDE SHIPMENTS OF UPS EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES TO CROSS $10 BILLION BY 2009
• Table 12 VALUE OF WORLDWIDE UNINTERRUPTIBLE POWER EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)
• Figure 5 VALUE OF WORLDWIDE UNINTERRUPTIBLE POWER EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES, 2003-2009 ($ MILLIONS)
  • WHAT THE HECK HAPPENED?
    • THE AUGUST 2003 BLACKOUT HIGHLIGHTS PROBLEMS ENDEMIC ACROSS THE CONTINENT
    • REGULATORY UNCERTAINTY
    • ANCILLARY SERVICES
    • DEBATE FACILITATED BLACKOUT
    • WILL ANCILLARY SERVICE IMPROVE?
    • MEMBERSHIP ISSUES
    • INCOMPLETE DEREGULATION
    • STATES RIGHTS VS. FERC MANDATE TO JOIN RTOS
    • INFRASTRUCTURE INADEQUACY
    • UTILITIES OBJECTIONS
    • COST BENEFITS
    • DE-BOTTLENECKING TRANSMISSION
      • De-Bottlenecking Transmission (Continued)
      • De-Bottlenecking Transmission (Continued)
    • PROTECTIVE INFRASTRUCTURE
    • LACK OF CLARITY
    • CONCLUSION
  • REINVENTING THE GRID
    • THE ELECTRICAL DISTRIBUTION GRID IS AN ANTIQUATED HODGEPODGE. HOW DO WE RESTRUCTURE IT?
    • BALANCING CONFLICTS
      • Balancing Conflicts (continued)
    • BASIC ARCHITECTURE
• Table 13 PLANNED TRANSMISSION, TRANSMISSION CIRCUIT MILES - 230 KV AND ABOVE, 2003-2013
  • SMART, DIGITAL GRID
    • Smart, Digital Grid (continued)
  • BARRIERS, AGAIN
  • CONCLUSION
  • AVOIDING NEED FOR POWER PLANTS
  • CHIPS THAT MONITOR POWER
  • BLOCKING OUT BLACKOUTS
    • BLOCKING OUT BLACKOUTS (CONTINUED)

ENVIRONMENT

• WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS RESOURCES ON THE RISE�E
• Table 14 WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2008
• Figure 6 WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, 2000-2008
  • GLOBAL ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CATALYST MARKET TO REACH NEARLY $13 BILLION BY 2009
• Table 15 GLOBAL ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CATALYST MARKET, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)
• Figure 7 GLOBAL ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CATALYST MARKET, 2002-2009 ($ MILLIONS)
  • MANAGING THE GREENHOUSE
    • ENERGY COMPANIES FACE MANY CHOICES. ITS NOT EASY.
    • PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS
    • CLIMATE CHANGE
    • HARD CHOICES
  • AIRY CONSPIRACY
    • NRDC ACCUSES UTILITIES OF COLLUSION TO VIOLATE AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
    • INDUSTRY CANARD
    • HOBBLED ENFORCEMENT

INTERNATIONAL

• UNSEATING OPEC
  • RUSSIA IS DETERMINED TO RE-ORDER ITS OIL PATCH AND DOMINATE WORLD MARKETS.
  • THE "YUKOS AFFAIR"
  • "KREMPEC"
  • PETROLEUM KINGPIN
  • "WIN-WIN" SCENARIO
• OPEC STILL DECLINING
  • EXPORT REVENUES STILL LAG FAR BEHIND PEAK YEARS OF TWO DECADES AGO
  • REVENUE DECLINE
• Table 16 OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUES AT A GLANCE (BILLIONS)
  • NON-OPEC EFFECTS
  • IRANS ROLE
  • PRICE COLLAPSE
  • JAPANS STRUGGLE
    • THE WORLDS SECOND LARGEST ENERGY IMPORTER IS ALSO GRAPPLING WITH SUPPLY PROBLEMS
    • IMPORT, IMPORT...
    • OIL RESERVES
      • Oil Reserves (Continued)
• Table 17 JAPAN ENERGY OVERVIEW
  • REFINING/DOWNSTREAM
  • NATURAL GAS
    • Natural Gas (Continued)
  • COAL
  • NUCLEAR ENERGY?
    • Nuclear Energy? (Continued)
  • SUMMARY
  • RIDING THE TIGER
    • THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF CHINAS ENERGY QUANDARY
    • TAKING CHALLENGES
      • A Season of Shortage
      • Oil
      • Coal
      • Power
      • Natural gas
      • Whats Driving Demand?
      • Squeeze of Bottlenecks
      • Inflection Point
      • Poor Fundamentals
      • Capital Inefficiency
    • IMPLICATIONS
      • Implications (Continued)
  • BRINGING METHANE TO THE MARKET
  • GAS SUPPLY IN OPEN MARKETS
• Table 18 WORLD NATURAL GAS RESERVES BY COUNTRY AS OF JANUARY 1, 2004

MARKETS

• SELLING GREENHOUSE GAS
  • CLEARING THE AIR IS EASIER IF MARKETS FOR CARBON DIOXIDE ARE DEVELOPED
  • CARBON CREDITS
  • DEMAND FOR CREDITS
  • BUYERS AND SELLERS
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Asia
  • BROKERING GREENHOUSE GASES
  • METHANE OPPORTUNITY
• Table 19 GLOBAL MERCHANT CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION, THROUGH 2008
  • FACTORS AFFECTING MARKETS
  • CONCLUSION
  • POWER HITS RECORD HIGH
    • WHOLESALE PRICES DEFINED U.S. POWER MARKETS
• Table 20 RESTATED PRICE ASSUMPTIONS FOR POWER MARKETS, 2004-2005
  • RECORD PRICES
  • PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
  • COAL PRICES

NEWS AND VIEWS

• NATURAL GAS
  • WORLD NATURAL GAS DEMAND TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE COMING FIVE YEARS...
• Table 21 WORLD NATURAL GAS DEMAND BY CATEGORY, THROUGH 2008 (TCF/YEAR)
  • TWO PROMISING SUPPLY OPTIONS
    • Two Promising Supply Options (Continued)
    • Two Promising Supply Options (Continued)
  • GAS COSTS FLYING HIGH
    • Manufacturing
  • WORLD BANK SHIFTS TO NATURAL GAS
  • LARGEST PRODUCTION OF LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS
  • HUGE RESOURCES FOUND IN TX AND OK
  • DEMAND GROWTH SPURS LNG PROJECTS
    • Demand Growth Spurs LNG Projects (Continued)
  • ALTERNATIVES
    • PRICE STABILITY FROM RENEWABLE GENERATION
    • FAST-GROWING STATES SUPPORT RENEWABLES
    • BIG ARRAY OF SOLAR THERMAL SYSTEMS
      • Big Array of Solar Thermal Systems (Continued)
    • WIND PROVIDES POWER FOR ELECTROLYSIS
    • LIGHTNING HARMS WIND TURBINES
      • Lightning Harms Wind Turbines (continued)
    • GTI PURSUES GASIFICATION
    • METHANE CLATHRATE HYDRATE PROSPECTING
    • A SOLAR PLANT FOR AUSTRALIA
    • ANOTHER GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT
    • GEYSERS PROVIDE RECYCLED WATER
    • ENERGY BLUEPRINT FOR HUDSON VALLEY
    • USGS PRESENTS HYDRATES FINDINGS
  • ENVIRONMENT/EMISSIONS
    • U.S. COMPANIES LAG ON KYOTO PROTOCOL
    • SIEMENS PROMOTING GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
    • THE DANGERS OF DIFFERENT PATHS TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • KEEPING AN EYE ON YUCCA MOUNTAIN
    • MEMBRANE ADVANCES FUEL CELL GOAL
    • ICF ADVISES CONTROLS POSTPONEMENT
    • BIOTECH BREAKS CELLULOSE BARRIER
    • CHINA SENDS POLLUTION ACROSS ASIA
    • ARE ENVIROS WRONG ON GROUNDWATER THREAT?
      • Are Enviros Wrong on Groundwater Threat? (Continued)
    • CALIFORNIA TACKLES CLIMATE CHANGE
    • WHATS THE SOURCE OF MERCURY POLLUTION?
      • Whats the Source of Mercury Pollution? (Continued)
    • MORE BAD NEWS ON FOSSIL FUELS
  • ELECTRIC UTILITIES
    • U.S. SMALL-SCALE POWER MARKET TO REACH $6.1 BILLION BY 2008
• Table 22 U.S. SMALL-SCALE POWER TECHNOLOGIES MARKET, THROUGH 2008
  • WORLDWIDE REVENUES FROM SMALL HYDRO AND OCEAN ENERGY CONVERSION EQUIPMENT INSTALLATIONS TO CROSS $8.8 BILLION BY 2008
• Table 23 WORLD SMALL HYDRO AND OCEAN ENERGY CAPACITY MARKETS AND REVENUES, THROUGH 2008
• Figure 8 PERCENTAGE SHARES OF SMALL HYDROMECHANICAL ENERGY CONVERSION DEVICES MARKET IN 2008
  • WORLDWIDE REVENUES FROM BULK PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLATIONS TO REACH NEARLY $555 MILLION BY 2008
• Table 24 WORLD BULK PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLED CAPACITY AND REVENUE, THROUGH 2008
• Figure 9 WORLD BULK ARRAY PHOTOVOLTAIC CUMULATIVE CAPACITY, 1982-2003 (MW)
  • ELECTRIC COMPANIES PATH TO BANKRUPTCY
  • GE TO INCREASE CHINAS POWER GRID
  • WEATHER DRIVES WINTER ELECTRIC DEMANDS
  • AMSC MAKES VOLTAGE REGULATOR SALE
  • CONSTRUCTION BEGINS FOR NY HTS CABLE
  • MITIGATING THREATS TO THE POWER GRID
  • SYNERGISTIC SUPERGRID UNDER DEVELOPMENT
    • Synergistic Supergrid Under Development (Continued)
  • NERC ASSESSES SUMMER RELIABILITY
  • INVESTMENT COULD LOWER WHOLESALE POWER PRICES
  • USING ENGINEERING TO EXTRACT EFFICIENCY GAINS
  • POWER PLANTS WILL NOT CAUSE MERCURY "HOT SPOTS"
    • Power Plants Will Not Cause Mercury "Hot Spots" (Continued)
  • INTEGRATING LOCAL POWER INTO EXISTING SYSTEMS
  • INDICATORS
    • FOCUS ON NATURAL GAS
      • Weather Drives Winter Electric Demands (Continued)
• Table 25 TOTAL U.S. PROVED RESERVES OF DRY NATURAL GAS, 1993-2003 (BILLION CUBIC FEET AT 14.73 PSIA, 60° FAHRENHEIT)
  • PETROLEUM OVERVIEW
• Table 26 PETROLEUM OVERVIEW, 1949-2002 (THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY)
  • CURRENT DOE FORECASTS OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION
• Table 27 CURRENT DOE FORECASTS OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION, 2001, 2002 AND 2010
  • OUTLOOK
    • POLITICS POWER RENEWABLES INTO MAINSTREAM
      • Politics Power Renewables into Mainstream (Continued)
    • CONSERVING HYDROCARBONS WOULD SAVE $438 BILLION
    • DOE ANNOUNCES FY 2005 BUDGET REQUEST
    • FUEL ECONOMY REFORMS COMING
    • ENERGY OUTLOOK
  • INTERNATIONAL
    • EU EXPANSION SIGNALS GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
  • PETROLEUM
    • IMF WANTS AFRICA TO CUT OIL DEPENDENCE
    • STORING CO₂ IN PARTIALLY DEPLETED OIL WELLS
      • Storing CO₂ in Partially Depleted Oil Wells (Continued)
    • THE PETROLEUM AGE IS FAR FROM OVER
    • CARBON DRILL PIPE IS TECHNICAL ACHIEVEMENT
  • COAL
    • GE ENERGY TO ACQUIRE GASIFICATION TECHNOLOGY
    • ULTRA-HIGH TEMP COAL PLANTS ARE MORE EFFICIENT
    • COAL-BASED METHANOL "LEAST EXPENSIVE" OPTION
  • TRANSPORTATION
    • DIESEL CAR ON THE ROAD TO REFORM
      • Diesel Car on the Road to Reform (Continued)
    • HYDROGEN THREE-WHEELERS DEVELOPED IN INDIA
    • AUTOMOBILES ARE SPARKING A REVOLUTION
    • ENERGY MANAGERS FOR THE AUTOMOBILE
    • GAS TAX ALTERNATIVE GETS ROAD TEST
    • GAS TAX ALTERNATIVE GETS ROAD TEST (CONTINUED)
    • PARTICLES GIVE CLUES TO CLEANER ENGINES
  • NUCLEAR
    • YUCCA DUMP RADIATION STANDARDS OVERRULED
    • NUCLEAR PLANTS TO GO OFF INTERNET
    • MAKE POTASSIUM IODIDE AVAILABLE
  • OIL
    • WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS RESOURCES ON THE RISE�E
• Table 28 WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2008
  • SHELL RE-CATEGORIZES ITS RESERVES
  • POLICY
    • WORLD BANK ENDORSES INVESTMENT INITIATIVE
  • NEW TECHNOLOGY
    • ELECTROPLATING BOOSTS SOLAR CELLS
    • FLYWHEEL SPINS TO A SPEED RECORD
      • Flywheel Spins To A Speed Record (Continued)
    • ULTRA LOW-EMISSION ON-SITE SYSTEMS
    • DOES DISTRIBUTION EFFICIENCY YIELD SAVINGS?
    • ELECTROPLATING BOOSTS SOLAR CELLS
    • SIEMENS ADVANCES ORGANIC SOLAR CELLS
    • NEW COOLING SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY
  • NEW BRIEFS
    • HIGH ALTITUDE POWER SOUGHT
    • FUEL CELL POWERS HIGHWAY PROJECT
    • MORE EFFICIENT FREIGHT TRANSPORT
    • TECHNOLOGY REDUCES TRUCK IDLING
    • CYLINDER DEACTIVATION DEMONSTRATED
    • WORLDS LARGEST SOLAR DISH DEBUTS IN ISRAEL
    • RESEARCHERS BREAK ELECTRONICS SPEED RECORD
    • FUEL CELL TO POWER TRAIN
    • 2004 SUVS ARE GREENEST AND MEANEST
    • FL GOVERNOR PROPOSES MILLIONS FOR HYDROGEN
    • CLATHRATES WAY TO STORE HYDROGEN
    • U.S. COOPERATES ON R&D EFFORTS
    • AUSTRALIA SEES FUTURE H2 DEMAND
    • BROIN ANNOUNCES ETHANOL TECHNOLOGY
    • ADVANCED DIRECT CONTACT CONDENSER
    • ABRAHAM, AND GOJI SAKAMOTO
    • FASTER DEPLOYMENT OF ADVANCED POWER

NUCLEAR

• HOPE FOR YUCCA MOUNTAIN
  • THE U.S. NUCLEAR WASTE REPOSITORY MAY YET BECOME REALITY. TAKE A LOOK
  • POSITION REVERSAL
  • A TRIP TO YUCCA MT.
  • THE FUTURE
  • THE TOTAL SYSTEM
  • CORROSIVE OPPOSITION
  • ACCURATE ESTIMATES
  • VIEW FROM YUCCA, MT.
• CURBING RUSSIAN PLUTONIUM
  • EFFORTS TO SHUT DOWN WEAPONS ERA PLANTS FACE ROADBLOCKS
  • HAZARDOUS LEGACY
  • UNSAFE TECHNOLOGY
  • WHAT GAO FOUND
  • SHUTDOWN CHALLENGES
  • RECOMMENDATIONS
• ANNIVERSARIES OF TMI, CHERNOBYL
  • ANNIVERSARIES OF TMI, CHERNOBYL (CONTINUED)
  • ANNIVERSARIES OF TMI, CHERNOBYL (CONTINUED)

POLICY

• GAS VS. NUKES
  • THE ENERGY DEPT. TAKES AN ANNUAL LOOK AT ITS CRYSTAL BALL
  • LNG SUPPLY POTENTIAL
    • LNG Supply Potential (Continued)
  • NUCLEAR POWER
    • Building New Plants
    • Building New Plants (Continued)
    • Results of Workshops
    • Results of Workshops (Continued)
    • Summary of Projections
    • Summary of Projections (Continued)

SUPPLY

• FINANCING DISTRIBUTED ENERGY
  • CAN WE BUILD AN ELECTRIC SYSTEM THAT RELIES ON THE PERFORMANCE OF INDIVIDUALS?
  • SCOPE OF DE
  • DRIVING FORCES
    • Driving Forces (Continued)
  • NEAR-TERM CHALLENGES
• Table 29 PERSPECTIVES OF THE DE PARTICIPANTS*
  • COMMON LANGUAGE
  • ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
  • GLOBAL OIL, GAS RESERVES CAUSE FOR PANIC?
    • ANALYSTS KEEP DOWNSIZING OIL AND GAS RESERVES. ARE WE REALLY RUNNING OUT?
    • EVALUATING REPORTING
    • INTERNAL ENGINEERING
    • EXTERNAL ENGINEERING
    • ACCOUNTING METHODS
    • RESERVE REVISIONS
    • SCRUTINIZING RESULTS
    • ESTIMATED COSTS
    • PREDICTABLE SUPPLY
  • AN END OF OIL?
    • MARION KING HUBBERT MADE PREDICTIONS ABOUT OIL SUPPPLIES. ARE THEY COMING TRUE?
    • WORLDWIDE CONSUMPTION
    • HISTORIC RECORD
    • REAL PEAKS
    • FALLING CURVES
    • REACHING THE PEAK
    • BEGINNING OR END
    • METHANE HYDRATE
    • IS COAL THE KING?
    • THE FUTURE
    • ENORMOUS CHALLENGES
    • FUSION RESEARCH
  • LOOKING FOR MORE
    • A STUDY SAYS EXPLORATION WILL GAIN BY 9% THIS YEAR
    • SPENDING GROWTH
      • International
      • United States
      • Canada
• Table 30 SELECTED U.S. OPERATING STATISTICS FOR FRS COMPANIES AND U.S. INDUSTRY, 1996-2002
• Table 30 (CONTINUED)
  • "APPLES-TO-APPLES"
    • United States
    • Canada
    • International
  • PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
  • RIG COUNT
  • DWINDLING RESERVES?
    • NOT YET, SAYS BPS "STATISTICAL REVIEW OF WORLD ENERGY 2004"
    • PROVED RESERVES
    • MARKET INFLUENCES
    • FUEL CONSUMPTION
      • Oil
      • Natural Gas
      • Coal, Nuclear and Hydroelectric
  • SECURE RESOURCES
    • HOW CAN ENERGY SECURITY BE CERTAIN IN A DANGEROUS WORLD?
    • GROWING RISKS
    • INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS
      • Fossil Fuels
      • Shifting Oil-Supply Patterns
    • RELIABLE DATA?
    • UNCERTAIN TRENDS
    • GAS MAY OVERTAKE COAL
    • ELECTRICITYS ROLE
    • RUSSIAN EXPORTS POISED GROWTH
    • PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT
    • NEW POLICIES
  • MEETING DEMAND
    • CRUDE OIL RESERVES DECLINE BUT NATURAL GAS RESERVES ARE UP
    • CRUDE OIL
    • NATURAL GAS
• Table 31 PROVED RESERVES (AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2003)
  • NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS
  • CLEAN COAL
    • NATURAL GAS PRICES ARE SPIKING. COAL LOOKS LIKE AN ALTERNATIVE
    • TURNING COAL INTO GAS
    • BREAKING RECORDS
    • EFFICIENT MATERIALS
  • NEW OIL CANNOT MEET WORLD DEMAND
    • REPLACING DECLINES
    • DEMAND, GROWTH SCENARIOS
    • "DRAMATIC FALL OFF"
  • DER MARKETS ARE TURNING UPWARD
  • REFINERS STRUGGLE TO MATCH DEMAND
    • REFINERS STRUGGLE TO MATCH DEMAND (CONTINUED)
    • REFINERS STRUGGLE TO MATCH DEMAND (CONTINUED)

TECHNOLOGY

• GETTING HYDROGEN FROM COAL
  • EFFORT IS BEING MADE TO DEVELOP MEMBRANES TO SEPARATE HYDROGEN FROM COAL SYNGAS
  • DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGY
  • DENSE CERAMIC MEMBRANES
  • POROUS CERAMIC MEMBRANES
  • METALLIC MEMBRANES
  • POLYMER MEMBRANES
• FLARING AND VENTING
  • HOW MUCH NATURAL GAS ENDS UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE? NO ONE SEEMS TO KNOW
  • ESTIMATING LOSSES
• Table 32 ESTIMATED GAS FLARED AND VENTED, 2000
  • ABATION EFFORTS
• Table 33 U. S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCED AND FLARED AND VENTED, 2002 (MILLIONS OF CUBIC FEET)
  • REDUCING WASTE
  • SUPER SUPERCONDUCTORS VIA NANOTECHNOLOGY
  • NEW BRIEFS
    • DMFC MEMBRANE COMPARED TO NAFION
    • KYNAR ADAPTED FOR FUEL CELL USE
    • GOLD NANOTUBES CONVERT BIOMASS TO POWER
    • T/J TECHNOLOGIES IMPROVES POWER DENSITY
    • MPHASE TO MARKET NANOGRASS
    • FLYWHEEL PROTECTION
    • TI OFFERS SMALLEST IC
    • CATALYSTS DESIGNED FOR FUEL CELLS

TRANSPORTATION

• U.S. MARKET FOR ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL VEHICLES TO REACH $2.08 MILLION BY 2009
  • U.S. MARKET FOR ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY .. (CONTINUED)
• Table 34 VALUE FOR MAJOR COMPONENTS FOR U.S. FUEL CELL VEHICLES, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)
  • THE DIESEL DILEMMA
    • A REPORT HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE ON DIESEL POWERED VEHICLES
    • CLEANER BUT�E
    • PLACE FOR GASOLINE
    • RECOMMENDATIONS
      • Recommendations (continued)
  • STANDARDS OR TAXES?
    • THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE LOOKS AT WAYS TO CUT VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION
    • ALTERNATIVE POLICIES
      • Alternative Policies (continued)
• Table 35 TOTAL LONG-RUN ANNUAL COSTS TO ACHIEVE A 10% REDUCTION IN GASOLINE CONSUMPTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE POLICIES (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
  • KEY ASSUMPTIONS
  • IMPROVING SOCIAL WELFARE?
    • Improving Social Welfare? (Continued)
  • HEADING TOWARD HYDROGEN
    • WHAT ARE THE HURDLES TO CLEAN, ON-PETROLEUM ENERGY?
    • PRODUCTION
      • Methane Reforming
      • Electrolysis
      • Sulfur-Iodine
    • HYDROGEN STORAGE
      • High-Pressure Gas
      • Metal Hydrides
      • Alanates
    • HYDROGEN DISTRIBUTION
      • Large Plants with a National Grid
      • Small Plants at Service Stations
      • Hydrogen Service Stations
    • ALTERNATIVES, COMPLEMENTS
      • Increased Fuel Economy
      • Electric Cars
    • SODIUM BOROHYDRIDE AS A SOURCE
    • ALTERNATIVE FUELS
  • NEW BRIEFS
    • ON-BOARD ELECTRIC DRIVE FOR COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT
    • VEHICLE AMONG FUTURE TRUCKS
    • WILL COAL FUEL ADVANCED AIRCRAFT?
    • NATIONWIDE ACCESS TO BIODIESEL BLENDS
    • HONDA HYBRID GEARS UP
    • BETTER CONTROL FOR HEVS
    • OVONIC PROVIDES PEAK POWER
    • OXONICA AND BASF COLLABORATE
    • DUAL BATTERY ALWAYS DELIVERS

UTILITIES

• RETHINKING THE GRID
  • AVOIDING BLACKOUTS AND MODERNIZING THE POWER GRID IS HARDER THAN YOU THINK
  • PARTIAL DEREGULATION
  • SIZE AND STRESS
    • Size and Stress (Continued)
  • LET THE MARKET DO IT?
    • Let the Market Do It? (Continued)
    • Let the Market Do It? (Continued)
  • WHATS STOPPING REGULATION?
    • Problems Introduced by Deregulation
    • Problems Introduced by Deregulation? (Continued)
    • Uncertain Federal Policies
• KEEPING TABS
  • UTILITIES ADOPTING WIDE AREA MONITORING SYSTEMS.
  • HOW IT WORKS
  • CURRENT DESIGNS
  • AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH
    • An Alternative Approach (Continued)
  • DELIVERABLES
  • THE FUTURE
• NEWS BRIEFS
  • FUELCELL WINS 4 MW ORDER
  • FLORIDA TO SPEND $10 MILLION
  • SMART GENERATION TESTED IN HOUSE
  • AXANE UNVEILS 2.5 KW SYSTEM

 

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 GLOBAL HYDROGEN GENERATION, STORAGE AND DELIVERY DEVICE VALUE BY ENERGY APPLICATION, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS INCLUDING R&D)

Table 2 COST VS. BENEFITS

Table 3 CUMULATIVE INSTALLED PV POWER IN JAPAN, GERMANY, AND THE U.S. (MW, 1998-2001)

Table 4 CORRELATION OF COMMODITY PRICES 1994-2004 ETHANOL GASOLINE CORN*

Table 5 GLOBAL VALUE OF PREMIUM PORTABLE POWER SOURCES BY TYPE, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Table 6 U.S. LITHIUM BATTERY SALES, THROUGH 2009

($ MILLIONS)

Table 7 VALUE OF U.S. ADVANCED BATTERY MARKET BY BATTERY TYPE, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS)

Table 8 ADVANCED POWER SOURCES FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS BY TYPE, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS)

Table 9 HISTORIC AND PREDICTED WHOLESALE BATTERY CONTROL TECHNOLOGY SALES, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Table 10 ETHANOL FUTURES CONTRACT SPECIFICATIONS CALLS FOR FOB VESSEL DELIVERY OF BULK LIQUID ETHANOL FROM ANY OF NINE COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN

Table 11 WORLD FUEL ETHANOL TRADE, 2003-2010 (BILLON GALLONS)

Table 12 VALUE OF WORLDWIDE UNINTERRUPTIBLE POWER EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Table 13 PLANNED TRANSMISSION, TRANSMISSION CIRCUIT MILES - 230 KV AND ABOVE, 2003-2013

Table 14 WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2008

Table 15 GLOBAL ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CATALYST MARKET, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Table 16 OPEC OIL EXPORT REVENUES AT A GLANCE (BILLIONS)

Table 17 JAPAN ENERGY OVERVIEW

Table 18 WORLD NATURAL GAS RESERVES BY COUNTRY AS OF JANUARY 1, 2004

Table 19 GLOBAL MERCHANT CARBON DIOXIDE UTILIZATION, THROUGH 2008

Table 20 RESTATED PRICE ASSUMPTIONS FOR POWER MARKETS, 2004-2005

Table 21 WORLD NATURAL GAS DEMAND BY CATEGORY, THROUGH 2008 (TCF/YEAR)

Table 22 U.S. SMALL-SCALE POWER TECHNOLOGIES MARKET, THROUGH 2008

Table 23 WORLD SMALL HYDRO AND OCEAN ENERGY CAPACITY MARKETS AND REVENUES, THROUGH 2008

Table 24 WORLD BULK PHOTOVOLTAIC INSTALLED CAPACITY AND REVENUE, THROUGH 2008

Table 25 TOTAL U.S. PROVED RESERVES OF DRY NATURAL GAS, 1993-2003 (BILLION CUBIC FEET AT 14.73 PSIA, 60° FAHRENHEIT)

Table 26 PETROLEUM OVERVIEW, 1949-2002 (THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY)

Table 27 CURRENT DOE FORECASTS OF ENERGY SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION, 2001, 2002 AND 2010

Table 28 WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2008

Table 29 PERSPECTIVES OF THE DE PARTICIPANTS*

Table 30 SELECTED U.S. OPERATING STATISTICS FOR FRS COMPANIES AND U.S. INDUSTRY, 1996-2002

Table 31 PROVED RESERVES (AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2003)

Table 32 ESTIMATED GAS FLARED AND VENTED, 2000

Table 33 U. S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCED AND FLARED AND VENTED, 2002 (MILLIONS OF CUBIC FEET)

Table 34 VALUE FOR MAJOR COMPONENTS FOR U.S. FUEL CELL VEHICLES, THROUGH 2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Table 35 TOTAL LONG-RUN ANNUAL COSTS TO ACHIEVE A 10% REDUCTION IN GASOLINE CONSUMPTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE POLICIES (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)  

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 GLOBAL VALUE OF PREMIUM PORTABLE POWER SOURCES BY TYPE, 2004 AND 2009 (%)

Figure 2 U.S. LITHIUM BATTERY SALES, 2002-2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Figure 3 ADVANCED POWER SOURCES FOR MILITARY APPLICATIONS BY TYPE, 1980-2008 ($ MILLIONS)

Figure 4 HISTORIC AND PREDICTED WHOLESALE BATTERY CONTROL TECHNOLOGY SALES, 2001-2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Figure 5 VALUE OF WORLDWIDE UNINTERRUPTIBLE POWER EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES, 2003-2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Figure 6 WORLD DEMAND FOR UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, 2000-2008

Figure 7 GLOBAL ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CATALYST MARKET, 2002-2009 ($ MILLIONS)

Figure 8 PERCENTAGE SHARES OF SMALL HYDROMECHANICAL ENERGY CONVERSION DEVICES MARKET IN 2008

Figure 9 WORLD BULK ARRAY PHOTOVOLTAIC CUMULATIVE CAPACITY, 1982-2003 (MW)